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ug环球会员开户(www.ugbet.us):Oil prices expected to average around US$90 in 2023-2027

admin2023-01-183Telegram中文群组索引

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New thinking: Workers in action at a drilling rig in the United States. Oil price forecasts today reflect greater uncertainty about the evolution of the business cycle. — Bloomberg

BRENT oil prices are expected to remain around US$90 (RM390) per barrel throughout the next five years, according to my eighth annual survey of energy market professionals.

Forecasts are mostly US$4 to US$10 (RM17 to RM43) per barrel above predictions at the time of the 2022 survey, conducted before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and up by around US$20 (RM87) compared with the 2020 survey, before the coronavirus pandemic.

In this year’s survey, prices are forecast to average US$87 (RM377) in 2023.

This is down from the US$99 (RM429) realised in 2022, when prices surged following Russia’s invasion and sanctions imposed in response by the United States and the European Union.

Forecasts for 2023 are tightly clustered, with half of respondents expecting the average price to lie between US$80 (RM347) and US$95 (RM412), and more than 90% expecting the average to lie between US$70 (RM303) and US$105 (RM455).

Prices are expected to continue averaging around US$90 (RM390) from 2024 to 2027, with a slight downward skew in forecasts later in the period.

Forecast prices are US$15 to US$20 (RM65 to RM87) per barrel above where the futures strip was trading at the time of the survey, a similar premium to the one revealed in last year’s survey.

However, this was up from a premium of around US$10 (RM43) before the pandemic.

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Understandably, there is more dispersion in forecasts for later years.

This essentially reflects greater uncertainty about the evolution of the business cycle and structural changes affecting the industry.

But uncertainty over all time horizons has jumped significantly following the pandemic and continued to increase in the most recent survey.

Both short-term forecasts for 2023-2024 and longer-term forecasts for 2025-2027 are characterised by much higher standard deviations than comparable forecasting horizons before the pandemic.

Conflict in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, intensifying rivalry between the United States and China, lingering pandemic disruptions, and the slowdown in the business cycle all seem to be combining to make forecasts more uncertain.

Where methodology is concerned, the survey is based on a questionnaire emailed to over 13,000 energy market professionals and others on the “best in energy” mailing list.

The questionnaire received more than 1,000 responses between Jan 10 and Jan 12.

Among survey respondents, 22% are directly involved in oil and gas production (exploration, drilling, production, refining, distribution, marketing and oilfield services).

Most of the rest work in banking and finance (18%), research (8%), professional services (8%), hedge funds (8%), physical commodity trading (7%), other energy businesses (6%) and other non-energy corporations (5%). — Reuters

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