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PETALING JAYA: The banking sector is expected to hold up despite an expected uptick in non-performing loans (NPLs) and slower loan growth this year, as rising inflationary pressures and headwinds mount.

NPLs are expected to rise towards year-end, as inflation dampens consumer spending and affects the bottom lines of businesses, banking analysts said.

Economists are anticipating the inflation rate to hover between 3% and 3.3% this year, coupled with more interest rate hikes in the offing.

Headline inflation, measured by the consumer price index, rose to 4.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in July this year compared with 3.4% y-o-y in June, mainly on rising food and non-alcoholic beverage costs. Core inflation stood at 3.4% y-o-y in July against 3% in June.

UCSI University Malaysia assistant professor in finance Liew Chee Yoong, who is also a research fellow at the Centre for Market Education, told StarBiz he expects NPLs to rise towards year-end if inflation continues to climb higher.

He said rising inflation would dampen consumer spending and reduce profits. When profits fall, he said the ability of companies to service debt payments would be reduced.

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This increases the NPLs, he said, noting that the rising inflation rate also reduces the disposable spending of individuals as well as their available cash flow for personal usage.

When an individual’s cash flow is reduced, Liew said this decreases the person’s ability to service debt payments and results in a spike in NPLs.

He expects the overnight policy rate (OPR) to be raised by 25 basis points (bps) if inflation continues to increase this year.

“If this occurs, this will raise the borrowing costs and the banking system’s loan growth will be negatively impacted as a result of the increase of borrowing costs.

“When the borrowing cost increases, the demand for bank loans will reduce as companies and individuals that are willing to undertake higher risk will prefer to invest the money that they have in interest rate products, which can yield them higher returns due to the increase in interest rates, rather than taking a loan and paying higher interest on their debts,” Liew said.

The banking industry’s loan growth continued to improve from 5.6% at end-June to 5.9% at end-July. The industry’s loans expanded by 3% in the first seven months of this year.

Moody’s Investors Service in a recent report said inflation would result in higher interest rates, hence widening Asean banks’ net interest margins (NIMs). However, it said asset risks would also increase, with problem loans rising modestly.

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